Robust Life Cycle Cost Assessment (LCCA)
	Name: Robust Life Cycle Cost Assessment (LCCA) File: Swei Presentation Final 5-8-12.pdf Size(MB): 0.78MB Extension: PDF Event: 2012 ICSC - SEATTLE Speaker Name: Swei, O. Managed by: sdickens Date Uploaded: June 5, 2012; 11:44 am Download Count: 150 Downloads This Month: 150 Your Geographic Information: Country: State/Region: City: Zip Code: Area Code: Your IP: 50.17.109.248 Description: Life Cycle Cost Assessment (LCCA) is an important decision making tool when comparing alternative pavement designs. Inevitably, there is uncertainty in the input values for initial construction, rehabilitation, and user cost over a pavement’s life-cycle. Specifically, there are two different types of uncertainty: parametric and scenario uncertainty. Parametric uncertainty in the LCCA of a pavement can result from measurement variation and the appropriateness of source data based on geographic, temporal, and technological assumptions, whereas scenario uncertainty is based on contextual variations between projects. By characterizing this underlying uncertainty, a decision maker can make a more informed choice between alternative pavement designs. This research presents a methodology for characterizing, statistically analyzing, and modeling uncertainty for the LCCA of pavements. The goal is to integrate these underlying uncertainties with the recently developed Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG), which incorporates uncertainty in the actual performance of a pavement. Using MEPDG, two different concrete pavement designs are developed for a specific project to illustrate pavement performance, and uncertainty of that performance. By integrating this methodology with MEPDG, a more robust LCCA comparison can be completed to conclude with what degree of certainty one pavement alternative has a lower expected life-cycle cost than another.